Welcome back to COP, LOOK, LISTEN. As leader’s speeches continue today, many are listening carefully for wording around ‘phase down’ or ‘phase out’ of fossil fuels. This is because, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) - the “demand trajectory for a 1.5 degree world leaves no room for new [oil and gas] fields”. The IEA’s latest Net Zero scenario implies a managed decline of global oil and gas production of 2% globally per year to 2030 and 4-5% between 2030 and 2050. 

But with this summit held in the sixth largest petroleum exporting nation worldwide, the fossil fuel industry feels more empowered than ever to push against such scenarios. Last week, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) published a scathing letter of response to one of the scientific reports cited above. It reads like a bingo card of fossil-fuelled misdirection…

FINDING OF THE DAY

We analysed OPEC’s digital footprint in recent weeks, including that letter. The narratives presented signal the approach that both Petrostates and fossil fuel lobbyists will likely take over the coming fortnight. Highlights include, with direct quotes taken from OPEC’s content: 

• Fossil fuel saviourism: There is “chronic under-investment in the [oil] industry” and “investment needs to increase”. This is because of both “rising energy demand” and a need to support a “sustainable economic future” in developing nations.

• Fossil fuel solutionism: “The oil industry is part of the solution, not the problem.

• Pushing non-transformative solutions: Particularly Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), but also direct air capture, carbon dioxide removal and “clean” hydrogen. 

First page of the letter from OPEC, published across all its social media platforms and on it's website on Monday 27th November 2023 

 Here’s our top five:

• Strawman: Misrepresenting the IEA’s statements. A highly detailed report based on scientific data is presented as a binary choice, as well as a “attempt to curtail the sovereign actions and choices of oil and gas producing developing countries”.

• Impossible expectations: Criticising the IEA for updating forecasts regularly. The nature of scientific data is it should be updated regularly - this is a strength of the scientific method, not a weakness.

• Red herring: Focusing on the benefits of fossil fuels while simultaneously ignoring the damage done by those same products.

• False choice: Presenting a false choice of ‘more investment’ or ‘no investment’. In reality, there is a third option not addressed: ‘less investment’. 

• Quote mining: Focusing on a small passage in a report from the IPCC about a role for CCUS, while ignoring that the IPCC regularly states the need for a rapid decline in oil and gas alongside.

Indicative social media posts from OPEC's channels

Action - Preparing for push back

Whether you are a journalist, policymaker or campaigner, you should prepare to fact-check these popular and other emerging narratives throughout the summit.

Being able to identify and name climate delay narratives, as well as climate science denial techniques, can be very helpful when responding to misleading claims. Framing rebuttal via the Fact, Myth, Fallacy format is also important, to make sure mis- and disinformation does not steal the limelight.

GOOD TO KNOW

• Come to Climate Action Against Disinformation’s COP28 event. In partnership with the UN Department of Global Communications, we will be at the Al Hur Arena in the Blue Zone, 1530 local time. We have a large panel who will be discussing the state of information integrity in the context of climate action.

• Speaking of corporate influence… InfluenceMap have launched their Corporate Accountability Platform for COP28. It’s a one-stop-shop helping policymakers, business and civil society groups understand the scale, power and tactics of corporate interests at the event. This treasure trove includes an analysis of corporate influencers attending COP28, a fact-checker for common fossil fuel narratives, plus detailed mapping of lobbying organisations worldwide.

If you have any investigative leads CAAD should explore, or want to find out more about our research and intel during the summit, please email contact@caad.info. We also have team members on the ground in the UAE who are available for interviews and side-events as useful.

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CAAD, www.caad.info, United Kingdom